Thought experiment: suppose 100% of the set value is in a single card (fairly analogous to an actual lottery). There may be a 0.00000whatever% chance of opening, but once it's opened, the value of all unopened packs drop 100%.
Sets (LTR) The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle Earth
- Thread starter Velrun
- Start date
Chris Taylor
Contributor
Yeah unfortunatly humans aren't exactly rational
Yeah UG madness was dirt cheap, I can confirm
But that’s not the case here. Can you show me the math for the actual example we’re discussing?
Well, suppose. Lot of the value is concentrated into a few cards. As long as those cards, e.g, the one ring, is still in the boosters than the boosters are worth a lot more than when that card is opened.
The math is simple, you could search for expected value and could get a good idea of it.
I don’t know if it is rude of me but I am mostly interested in the actual math since I believe my funny little joke had some decent logic but probably not bulletproof and Jason commented that this isn’t how math work. So I would like to see Jason explain exactly how the math works for that scenario if possible.
Here we go:
* suppose all the value is in one card, let’s call this value X. Let’s assume that there are N packs and for simplicity assume that the probability of opening the card is equal over all packs, so 1/N.
* the expected value of each pack is the probability of opening the jackpot times the value of the jackpot, X times 1/N, also known as X/N. This value is before any packs are opened, see next point.
* when the card gets opened then all remaining packs have value 0, since the probability of opening the one card has moved to 0. Similarly, every opened pack which did not have the card increase the value of the remaining closed packs by lowering the number of packs.
* ergo, the value of the packs when the card gets opened decrease by 100% (from X/N to 0).
It is likely that you are confusing ex (before) and post (after) ante (outcome).
Now, let’s make it a bit more complicated by allowing the remaining cards to still have some value. All it does is change the baseline of 0 to a higher value. Point remains, lotteries should not be played for the fairy tale outcome. (Unless your pre-fun is worth the money). If I am correct you have a higher probability of getting hit by lightning than the jackpot. Please do not make the mistake by buying lottery tickets when you get hit by lightning.
Edit: your point was that an opened pack increases the probability by a low number, but that is not correct:
For simplicity assume that there are only 5 packs and that the card is randomly, e.g, equal opportunity in those five packs. Which is 0.2 for these five packs.
If one gets opened and it is not in that pack the probability is 0.25 for the remaining. Opening another dummy increases the odds to 0.33. Again opening a dud increases the odds to 0.5. If you still are out of luck then the card has to be in the final pack which has a whopping 100% probability.
At any time you open the one, then the other packs have one of the most important but humble numbers of probability, yes you beauty of a 0, of the remaining packs.
And no, it is not rude to ask for a clarification. It shows character and a desire to learn!
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Vel you were mixing up probability with expected value. The post I made was an illustration of why the two are not at all the same. I couldn't tell you the actual percent because I don't know how many packs they'll print, the value of a pack without the ring, the value of the ring itself, or how the market will irrationally adjust to any of this.
Specifically, it's a weighted expected value problem.:
E(pack) = p(pack with no ring) * E(pack with no ring) + p(pack with ring) * E(pack with ring)
When the ring is found, the two probability values go to 1 and 0 respectively. The other values (e.g. expected value of pack with no ring) I don't know, so I can't compute the change.
E(pack) = p(pack with no ring) * E(pack with no ring) + p(pack with ring) * E(pack with ring)
When the ring is found, the two probability values go to 1 and 0 respectively. The other values (e.g. expected value of pack with no ring) I don't know, so I can't compute the change.
If I open the 1/1 Ring, I'm either going to donate it to a Museum or throw it into a Volcano.
landofMordor
Administrator
For what it's worth, the Peter Jackson movies are leaving Netflix on March 31st -- still enough time to watch them in a leisurely fashion if you're tryna pregame for the Magic set
@Jason Waddell @Rusje
I have read it and I don’t think I am smart enough to understand. Maybe I used to be but certainly not any longer.
I thought if the special ring had about 1 % of the total value of all cards in all packs then the Demant would drop by about 1 % if that special ring was confirmed to no longer be possible to open in packs.
I have read it and I don’t think I am smart enough to understand. Maybe I used to be but certainly not any longer.
I thought if the special ring had about 1 % of the total value of all cards in all packs then the Demant would drop by about 1 % if that special ring was confirmed to no longer be possible to open in packs.
This is would be correct if the market were based entirely on logic. However, there's a certain amount of excitement in being able to potentially open a card that will sell for well over $100,000. That excitement adds to the price.
The gambling aspect of the set will increase the price by more than the expected value is worth.
It's also possible that so many of these get opened that the set is worthless except for the serialized cards and a few of the Mythic reprints.
theres also the dramatised audiobook set!For what it's worth, the Peter Jackson movies are leaving Netflix on March 31st -- still enough time to watch them in a leisurely fashion if you're tryna pregame for the Magic set
and just the actual books ofc
Man, I got bored reading halfway through The Two Towers back in like 2014 and never read the rest of the series. I told myself I wasn't going to watch the Jackson films until I finished the books, so I still haven't seen them to this day despite their high quality.
Onderzeeboot
Ecstatic Orb
I would say, if the book’s not for you, go see the movies. I absolutely loved the books, but don’t you feel like you have to torture yourself (by reading a book you find boring) to properly enjoy the Jackson trilogy.
landofMordor
Administrator
Honestly the LotR books are a lot like early Beatles albums or 77’s Star Wars — you gotta respect the technical achievements and quantum leaps in the art form, and you see the fingerprints of those artworks everywhere… but it’s not like people stopped innovating or improving since then. LotR is definitely not the fantasy I choose to re-read for my own enjoyment, just like my “comfort Star Wars” will never be the original, and my favorite rock music will never be the Beatles.
(Note: The Hobbit really does hold up as a wholesome storybook, though. I’d start there.)
(Note: The Hobbit really does hold up as a wholesome storybook, though. I’d start there.)
Yes, I could recommend the wheel of time 14logy if one wants to have a good fantasy book/series. It is a lot of pages though.
As with every other Secret Lair and Judge Foil promo, proxy websites ensure there will be thousands of proxies of this version floating around within 6-8 weeks of release. (So you'll be able to own one (or even a dozen) for yourself.)
But, at that point, I wish anyone luck trying to authenticate theirs is *THE ACTUAL ONE* lol, goooood luck with that sale. Did they put an RFID chip in the card or something? If not, well...
It's a very cool but I don't think it's very workable to be honest.
Let it be a one-trick pony.
Do it one time. With The One Ring only and never again. Then I will call it a succes.
Do it one time. With The One Ring only and never again. Then I will call it a succes.
For what it's worth, I loved the Hobbit when I read it, and I really enjoyed the Fellowship of the Ring. I think I just got busy when I was trying to read the Two Towers, and just sort of dropped it when I got to a slow part of the book.
Maybe I should just get the Audiobook, so I can listen to it in the car during the 6 days of the week there isn't a new Lucky Paper Radio episode to listen to. Thom Hartmann can only carry us so far!
HIGHLY recommend the audiobook, i have it on Compact Disk and plan to do a re-listen soon while i still have a vehicle old enough to play Compact Disks
CDs are a dying breed.
On a related note, there is a global Floppy Disk shortage right now because there are still plenty of functioning devices that use Floppy Disks to store information, but Floppy Disks haven't been produced since 2011.