General Fixing the Die Roll

[spicewitch]

When I first started playing MtG, I desperately wanted the 'on the draw' player to get something more than what they currently get. It's tough, because in some formats the win rate difference is even smaller than in Chess. If mtggoldfish is to believed, there are even some fucky formats where playing second is a higher winrate than going first.

It does seem to be true that you should always go first in Cube, though. So maybe the option to draw a card or get a Lotus Petal would be nice. Or even draw a card plus a Lotus Petal that can only be used on T1. Because if you're the aggro player, you want to go first, and if you're the control player, you don't want the aggro player going first.

The card is a nice booby prize, better than many other boardgames' solutions to the player 1 advantage, but it's still clearly a booby prize.

 

[Eric Chan]

I really like mtggoldfish, but I no longer believe in their methodology or their results. For limited formats, they frequently seem to report that being on the draw will lead to a higher win rate. If this is true, everyone - especially pro players - should have come to the same conclusion, and regularly choose to be on the draw. But in practice, I haven't seen this happening.

I like your idea of the option to either draw a card or get a Lotus Petal, but not both. Armed with knowledge of how their deck works, players will know which one is more beneficial - an aggro player on the draw would probably benefit more from the mana boost to deploy threats earlier, whereas a grindy midrange deck might want the extra card to fight a long battle of attrition.

 

[Jason Waddell]

I really like mtggoldfish, but I no longer believe in their methodology or their results. For limited formats, they frequently seem to report that being on the draw will lead to a higher win rate. If this is true, everyone - especially pro players - should have come to the same conclusion, and regularly choose to be on the draw. But in practice, I haven't seen this happening.

I've said this before, but I think it bears repeating. Play vs. draw debates need to be filtered to Game 1 data only.

Suppose:
a) it is better to be on the play
b) the loser of Game 1 gets to choose to play or draw (not really a suppose, it's the tule)
c) better decks are more likely to win Game 1

Then you have a scenario where, for all 2-0's:
- the team on the draw won Game 1 ~50% of the time (the team that went 2-0 wins 50% of the die rolls on average)
- the team on the draw won Game 2 100% of the time (was always put on the draw, won anyways)

Clearly this is going to bias some data aggregation if not accounted for properly.

 

[Jason Waddell]

I like your idea of the option to either draw a card or get a Lotus Petal, but not both. Armed with knowledge of how their deck works, players will know which one is more beneficial - an aggro player on the draw would probably benefit more from the mana boost to deploy threats earlier, whereas a grindy midrange deck might want the extra card to fight a long battle of attrition.

Or whether they have some way of converting the mana to tempo / card draw later. Let's not forget that Lotus Petal is a card. Back in CawBlade days, getting a Stoneforge or Jace out a turn earlier would have been a godsend.

The thinking is really "would I rather have my first draw be a Lotus Petal or a random card?"

Follow up: would the Petal be in from the start of the game for Turn 0 interaction?

 

[spicewitch]

getting a Stoneforge or Jace out a turn earlier would have been a godsend.

That's part of what's so great about Coin / could be great about Petal. Player 1 already gets everything out one turn earlier. But for just one key card that you truly love with all your heart, all your soul, and all your mind, you can pretend to be player 1 for a turn. You can do it. If you believe in yourself!

 

[Eric Chan]

Whoops, I think I confused myself. The way Hearthstone works, both players draw on the their first turn, but the second player's starting hand size is four, rather than three. In Magic, the first player already skips their draw step. So the way I'd proposed to simulate this would be to instead let the second player have a starting hand size of eight, but also skip their first draw step.

So the tradeoff is not so much card versus card - it's more "can my deck make use of a Lotus Petal?" versus "how much do I value the extra information from knowing what my first draw step will be in making mulligan decisions"?

When put that way, though, I'd think the Lotus Petal would win out almost all the time.

 

[Jason Waddell]

Part of the downside of something like Petal is that it's an awful topdeck. Here, that's not a possibility.

 

[Diakonov]

I think we can consider Petal to be stronger in Magic than the Coin is in Hearthstone. It fixes for you, you aren't guaranteed a ramp every turn, etc.

How about:

Both players begin with 7. The player going second starts with a Gold token in play.
Starting player gets to draw on the first draw step.

 

[Eric Chan]

That's... that's not bad at all. I agree that Lotus Petal would be better in Magic, especially considering the number of times I've been stuck with a five or six mana sweeper in hand, but was one mana short of casting it, and took a bunch of extra damage before I peeled the final land. Maybe giving back the card advantage of being on the draw for this tempo advantage would be fair.

Or, make it a choice for the player? Wait, this is what bumbeh proposed after all..! I'm slow.

edit: On second thought, I still think the player going second should get some card and tempo advantage back. Getting only a Petal but not the card would still mean that you're down by half a turn for the entire game, and you're straight up behind on any turn in which you're not cracking the Petal. How about a colourless Petal, so that you can play catch up on tempo, but not get free fixing?

 

[Meltyman]

What works in "german" highlander aka 100 singleton, you have one free mulligan.
Probably a too powerful advantage for the player not on the play, i guess.

 

[Onderzeeboot]

edit: On second thought, I still think the player going second should get some card and tempo advantage back. Getting only a Petal but not the card would still mean that you're down by half a turn for the entire game, and you're straight up behind on any turn in which you're not cracking the Petal. How about a colourless Petal, so that you can play catch up on tempo, but not get free fixing?

Then how about...
Both players begin with 7. The player going second starts with a Gold token in play.
Starting player gets to scry 2 before the first draw step.