General RNG Tries to Fuck Me Up?


Here’s a deck from our recent online draft. It did pretty well (2-1), but its pilot complained about some inconsistency. Often his opening hands had, say, no 2 drop or 1 drop, which prevented the player from using all of his mana available each turn. After the draft I decided to make an experiment. I gathered this deck in real and drew 15 hands in a row. Only 2 of them had 1-drop into 2-drop into 3-drop. These gaps in curve tend to decrease the amount of pressure the deck can apply to an opponent.

The first thing that came to my mind is bad shuffling. But I don’t think it’s the case. Typicaly we all do:
1st – separate-into-piles-and-mix—‘em shuffle to both make sure our decks have 40 cards and randomise them.
2nd – repeatedly (for like 24 times) separate our decks into two piles and cut them into each other (somewhat similar to a riffle shuffle).
3rd – hindu shuffle cards a little.
4th – cut our decks.
Hopefully I didn’t confuse anyone with explanations. The summary of this nonsense is, methinks, we shuffle really well.
Do numbers work against us? Well, I noticed that, say, six 2-drops give a greater consistency to an aggro deck, then five. However, does this mean aggro players always have to go for 6+? It seems to be simply impossible. Plus, I’ve seen aggro lists with even 3 of those! For instance, this one by Cultic Cube:
I guess, they must work?
Has anyone faced a similar problem? Are there any ways to deal with it, or it is a thing to accept as given?
 
Curving out consistently 1-2-3 drops like you want is not usual. Much more reasonable is having 2 out of 3 of those.

If your aggro decks need to curve out like that to be competitive, maybe the answers to them are too strong? I'd say something about resilience and long-term/grindy viability, but your list is pretty good already.

Maybe you're just setting too high a standard for how good an aggro deck needs to be? 2-1 is a winning record, not a losing one.
 
Curving out consistently 1-2-3 drops like you want is not usual. Much more reasonable is having 2 out of 3 of those.

If your aggro decks need to curve out like that to be competitive, maybe the answers to them are too strong? I'd say something about resilience and long-term/grindy viability, but your list is pretty good already.

Maybe you're just setting too high a standard for how good an aggro deck needs to be? 2-1 is a winning record, not a losing one.

The thing is I don't remember such consistency problems to appear that often in the past. We often did some kind of tests where we created constructed 40-card decks out of our cube card pool and played against each other to get an understanding of, for example, how the ideal/close to idel deck of a certain archetype would perform. During one of such tests I was playing with a list similar to the one I posted above, and, as far as I can recall, hands containing 1, 2, and 3-CMC creatures appeared more often.
EDIT: Maybe, it's really some kind of a constructed bias in my brain that made me think that limited aggro decks have to curve out the same way constructed ones do. I guess, I'll watch if this thing reduces the competitiveness of our aggro lists during the next several drafts and decide what to do.
 
seems like simple probability just doing it's thing, tinged with some negative bias. It is a slightly higher number of "high" drops than I might expect in a true sligh deck, but hardly unusual for cube. A number of the bigger cards help with any stumble that might've taken place earlier on (Haste, direct life loss, etc), so doesn't seem that problematic to the deck. The virtual lack of burn is interesting, but not overly detrimental.

And to be truly fair to the deck, you actually have to draw 9 cards if simulating play first, and 10 if play second. You could draw that 2 drop before T2, and three drop before T3. Also probably increase the sample size to like 10-100x what you did...
 
Reasonably speaking, you're rarely going to have a perfect 1-2-3 curve. For aggro, you just want to be using your mana as efficiently as possible. A 1-2-2&1, or a 1, 1&1, 3, or even a 1, 1&Tapland, 3 curve is completely reasonable. It's not ideal to miss a 1-drop but there are definitely hands (usually ones with your bomb finishers) where it is right to keep even though you miss out on your first turn play. Limited decks are never going to be perfect, even if you dedicate huge amounts of space to making them work. As long as the deck is functional and able to win, it doesn't really matter wether or not the deck is always running perfectly.
 
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