As a counterpoint, Pioneer and Modern are both interesting and healthy. Pioneer's getting plenty of play around me (though I am moving in 3 days, so who knows what being halfway around the world will do to my POV there) and is the best it's ever been. Modern is annoyingly the MH2 Block format, but all the same is not so far off from the best it's ever been to play, with diverse decks that do interesting things and lots of disruption and back-and-forth.
AND YET, I am truly offended by this 30th Anniversary expansion, and I'm the target audience in so many ways (other than making 12/15 cards in the new border???? who wants that from this kind of product??????). I think it, much more than the Fortnite-ification of Magic or the sloppy Digital-first design process or the black hole of a EDH-centric R&D, represents a trajectory for the game I am actually worried about, after finding most of the complaints of the last 10 years overblown.
Like those other issues, I'm confident Magic will overcome this.
But unlike something like Universes Beyond, which has fantastic and obvious value regardless of its risks and challenges, I see these 30th Anniversary boosters as a thesis statement. It declares that WotC is merely beginning their exploitation-driven product mentality I had previously believed was at its logical extreme with Collector's Boosters and Secret Lair -- initiatives that I can support, even with their warts.
So even though I'm still confident in the overall health of the game, and my ability to get a playgroup to draft with me when my Cube is drinking age (halfway there babyyyy), I can't imagine we're on a path where the unadulterated growth of Magic continues at this rate without diluting what makes the game so special. It's weird to think, even though the game's got decades of steam left, this may be the peak of the game.
Not going to lie, while I disagree with some specific points you make, I do agree in general. I don't think an eternal format is in a good place when it's in essence Horizons Block Constructed but there are a variety of decks even if they share a significant percentage of their cards. While Pioneer is very much a dead format where I live, it's a
lot of fun playing with the very small pool of players that occasionally have their pioneer deck with them, and really reminiscent to me of the early days of Modern when
I found it it's most fun -Best of luck with your new location, by the way, I hope Magic is thriving there.
I also agree with you on Universes Beyond, with the very large caveat that they failed at overcoming those risks and challenges - they got it exactly right in Ikoria and Innistrad Midnight Hunt, in having the cards be effectively official altered art cards. I want them to make their saving throw and turn -all- Universes Beyond cards into exactly that - they've said they might sometimes in the future maybe, which is the sort of corporate hedge that makes me feel really cynical. They won't say no because they don't want another reserved list situation on their hands and the inevitable massive backlash, but they don't want to commit to a yes because that kills the FOMO of limited print runs.
I've found Magic to be at it's cheapest in a while too, despite the fact that sealed product sold near me is at its most expensive - the massive amount of chase crap that I hate has led to enough boxes being opened that all the nifty cool little cards, even alt art super special prints with fancy foiling, being literal cents at my FLGS. Secret Lairs, which I also think are neat even if I'll never buy one and I think they're frustratingly anti-LGS, have driven prices down on foil first prints and older promos of several cards I like. This has made it possible for me to pick up nice versions of things as I add them to the cube without having to worry too much about if it has legs in the long term - I'm a lot happier picking up The Raven Man in foil showcase for 10 cents, knowing that if he stays I'll have the version I want, vs buying or trading for the cheapest version then wanting to upgrade later because, turns out, it is good enough.
Does the amount of profit really represent
the peak of magic?
A peak, sure, on that axis, but there are also others. Urza's for absolute bullshit, Nemesis for the lore, Mirrodin or Kaladesh for the banlist, Invasion or Innistrad for limited, each was a peak in a different way. Even if magic never makes as much money again and slowly declines back to like, 2006-levels, there's still the potential for other peaks - after all, that was the era of peak nostalgia
So yeah, you'll probably hear me complain about the state of Magic a lot whenever Wizards makes an announcement. There's still a lot to like about Magic, which is why we're still hanging around on the internet complaining about it. It's when we all
stop complaining that something has gone fatally wrong.
Edit: I also want to highlight that now is also a high point for MTG art. Cards are very, very pretty, and I don't just mean all the alternate frame treatments and alternate arts and Secret Lair versions.
Avon,
Guay,
Neilsen and
Kane Ferguson have real competition in
Beckert,
Burmak,
Mayer and
McKinnon.
