General Variance as a format(cube vs draft)

[schof]

It seems obvious to me, that if you compare normal draft formats to cube drafts, there is more variance in a normal draft. Here is my basic argument:

1) nonuniform power level induced by rarity distribution
2) nonuniform power level induced by set restrictions
3) nonuniform archetype support induced by set restrictions

I am very interested to hear what you guys think. Thanks very much!

 

[FlowerSunRain]

Normal drafts have commons that compromise a disproportionate amount of the card pool, which reduce the level of variance significantly. I'd agree that this reduction of variability doesn't outweigh things like "I pulled Drana GG" that plague certain booster draft formats, but it is an extremely significant factor that reduces variability as compared to most cubes.

Granted many cubes use functionally interchangeable cards (or even blatant multiples) to serve the same purpose, but usually not to the same level of blanketing that a booster draft set does with its commons.

 

[schof]

That's interesting, I would of expected the glut of commons to be an increase in variability because of the relative power difference to the "bombs". I think that is a good point though.

I guess I was thinking that in cube, all the cards are good so there are less dramatic power differences of a few cards to others. There are of course exceptions which are cube dependent, but that often leads to cards being removed as "too good" as far as I understand.

 

[Dom Harvey]

A big factor is the lack of 'bad' cards in Cube making it easier to hit 22-24 playables and switch archetypes mid-draft, considerably reducing variance.

 

[Jason Waddell]

Maybe a dumb question, but as a statistician I have to know, how are we defining variance here? Variability in experience from draft to draft? Variability in deck power levels? Variability in car power level?

 

[CML]

as i understand it "variance" in games refers to the extent to which the outcome of the games (or matches, tournaments, hands, whatever) are determined by luck (r^2? it's been awhile since i did stats.) so the three things you mentioned above would fall under that umbrella category.

in other words, phil ivey can lose to his little sister at poker, but i'll never beat kasparov at chess. or i might beat a moron 90% of the time in RGD draft but in MBS "a scrub with a massacre wurm is a scrub to be contended with" etc.

afaik one of the big ideas of the modo cube is to heighten variance to the point where it's roughly as big as it is in a NWO draft environment -- which is to say, very (though WotC would point to their contention that good players are doing better in major events than ever before since NWO, which is something that I don't understand at all if it's true). dom, the steep power curve on the Modo cube is a big part of this, and one _does_ kind of have to scramble for them playables nos. 22-24.

 

[schof]

Maybe a dumb question, but as a statistician I have to know, how are we defining variance here? Variability in experience from draft to draft? Variability in deck power levels? Variability in car power level?

All three actually.

But I'm specifically talking about the variance of deck power levels in a draft.

 

[CML]

If you want to maximize the extent to which drafting decisions matter, the difficulty is in sculpting a format where you won't just lose to the Jitte / Skullclamp but also can't just pick the 3-CMC value creature and end up with interchangeable decks.

I feel this tension is something WotC has a lot of trouble dealing with, esp. given the diverse demographics they need to encourage to draft

 

[Jason Waddell]

All three actually.

But I'm specifically talking about the variance of deck power levels in a draft.

Well, in statistics we do a lot of breaking variance into variance components. In cube I feel the variance in deck power is much more driven by the differences in player skill, whereas in a normal draft it feels more driven by the power level of cards opened. Obviously there's a little bit of each in both formats.

As a result, among similarly skilled players I expect the variance in deck power to be lower in cube than in retail drafts.