General Can I Have Your Digits?

CML

Contributor
Hey doodz,

So with CT becoming more of a thing, we have access to a great deal of quantitative data about our Cubes, some of which is useful for making design choices. Games start too slowly? Add in more 1-drops. Colors grossly imbalanced? Check your number of spells in Red.

Anyone who watches sports or has played online poker with a HUD knows that advanced stats make a beautiful game more beautiful; it's not like basketball will be solved by a multivariable analysis of corner 3's taken with respect to points per offensive possession, nor can you just take a dozen poker metrics, spit them into an algorithm, and determine how to play optimally against your opponent in a certain spot, lest he realize you're doing this (and so on).

Anyway, MTG is the same way and Cube design, as a facet of it, is, too. And though CubeTutor has a bunch of useful stats that grow more encompassing and accessible every month, it doesn't have everything. Some of this is due to sample size difficulties -- nobody has drafted enough for the 'first pick' metric to be useful -- but much of it is just there because it isn't there: principally, you can't visualize your entire curve, nor calculate it.

As (anecdotally) formats appear to be very, very sensitive to the CMC of their spells, this is where y'all come in. I made a nice little spreadsheet that we can work on filling out when we're bored at work or a tedious party. Y'all can change it in any way; I've just begun with slots for curve metrics for the last 4 years' draft formats, but ideally more metrics will get added along the top, along with more Cubes -- your Cubes -- along the bottom. Matthew Watkins' excellent articles on gatheringmagic.com might yield some useful data, too, beyond the (very interesting) 'average length of game' number.

I'm envisioning this as a big project that distills into numbers some of the more descriptive things we do on this forum. A good friend of mine pointed out the other day that Magic writing tends towards subjectivity, beyond the psychological aspect of the game, as a means of covering up our deep ignorance of the game's mechanics; contemporary Magic writing, however good, reads like the poker theory from the '90s that now seems impossibly quaint. Maybe we can help advance the game with not just the best Cubes, but understanding how Limited formats really work -- god knows Wizards needs it these days ...

Have at it:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjuwQWbAEpNndGotaEw1MUtfdDV4Uklfa1pRUnVGM0E#gid=0
 

Eric Chan

Hyalopterous Lemure
Staff member
Fantastic initiative, CML! Colour me surprised - I always thought you had something resembling hostility towards fine-grained statistical tracking. I love this idea, and whether or not something useful comes out of it, at least I'll be able to confirm that I have way too many eight-drops compared to the rest of you guys.
 

CML

Contributor
Fantastic initiative, CML! Colour me surprised - I always thought you had something resembling hostility towards fine-grained statistical tracking. I love this idea, and whether or not something useful comes out of it, at least I'll be able to confirm that I have way too many eight-drops compared to the rest of you guys.


not that you didn't already know this, but i hate the notion that everything should be completely "balanced" and that tracking deck records etc. is objective proof of one thing or the other. i hate hiding bad design behind a veneer of meaningless numbers. but i love the idea that numbers can describe shit in a math-based game, i guess. there's just no way to put the positive thought without being a platitude that i can think of
 
Due to the way rarities do things to real sets that they don't do to cubes, we probably need to do everything by as-fan. There's no value in saying that some set has 15 one drops (or whatever); there is value in saying 1.2 cards in a booster are one drops.

E: Also this kind of bullshit qualitative game design stats analysis is something I love doing because I love making games, so I'm definitely down with doing some of this.
 

Jason Waddell

Administrator
Staff member
There's nothing wrong with recording the data. Data is inherently neutral. Conclusions based on data can be disastrous though.

But I do think it's a cool initiative, just something, ironically, that I probably can't be arsed to pioneer.
 

Dom Harvey

Contributor
That's my biggest gripe about (a certain person on/) MTGS - they love spouting statistics like 'you draw this before turn 4 in 52.4% of games' or 'this is the sixth most popular U/W card' and while I'm happy they can use a calculator, I don't care unless they can tell me what those mean.
 

CML

Contributor
That's my biggest gripe about (a certain person on/) MTGS - they love spouting statistics like 'you draw this before turn 4 in 52.4% of games' or 'this is the sixth most popular U/W card' and while I'm happy they can use a calculator, I don't care unless they can tell me what those mean.


Yeah, the logical conclusion of this is Wizards designing based on market research, which is the kind of stupid thought process that would prevent someone from ever getting hired by Wizards
 
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