General How many Scry is worth a card?

Changling Bob

Changling Bob

FlowerSunRain said:
Probably not too helpful, but compare:

vs.
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So ignoring the 'cast this normally mode', you have 5U card vs 2U scry 3. This is the difference that Anotak was talking about, in that speculation will never actually net you a card, and drawing arbitrarily many cards is a bunch more mana than scry arbitrarily.

Conversely! At 6 mana in a blue deck, you net a card but you also get scry six. At seven mana you spend the card and draw 2 cards or scry nine! You probably don't scry nine.
 
CML

CML

Contributor
Jesse G said:
....Owl i guess? but green and blue decks are not created equal, and flying vs. being an elf is... well, it depends..

Weird idea, incoming..... Maybe this isn't actually useful, but in terms of "Is X worth a card?" perhaps you can consider the following test:

Suppose you start the game with an emblem that has the following ability. "Discard a card at random: Do X. Activate this ability only once per turn."
How often does it get used? This takes mana costs out of consideration, but it seems to me to be a decent metric for how often effect X is "Worth a card".

If X is Lightning Bolt, it probably gets used all the time, most decks would kill for that emblem, so it stands to reason that bolt is often worth more than a card..
If X is put a 1/1 token on the field, the desirability goes way down.... Lightning bolt is (usually) worth more cards than memnite... (i know bolt costs mana and memnite doesn't but we're not interested in costs here. The question is Whether the effect is worth a card)

The more useful examples though, invole Xs that, on their own, can't win the game. (That way the tempo of a free spell every turn doesn't encourage you to use the effect regardless of whether its a good deal or not.)

Suppose X is Divination. we obviously have a problem here, as you almost always should just activate this ability whenever it is available to you. 2 cards> 1 card (Again, this is an idealized world, don't fret about running out of library, or extra value from madness, or whatever. Think abstract magic. Cards are good. More cards are better. )

How about if X is Draw a card? This case is interesting, and actually why I believe the metric may have value. Thinking in the most abstract terms, it is correct to activate the emblem precisely when the average value of a card in your hand is less than one in your deck, that is to say, when you value "draw a card" more than an average card in your hand. So, according to this metric, "draw a card" is worth more than one card when your hand is worse, on average, than your deck, and worth less than a card when your deck is worse than your hand, which is exactly what conventional wisdom says about random looting. Basically, this metric says that a player should activate the ability whenever effect X is worth more than a card to them, and abstain whenever X is worth less.

So now, what if X is scry 1? This is probably almost never desirable... except when you truly have nothing but garbage to pitch, so it's usually worth less than a card.

The real question is, what if X is Scry 3 or scry 4? how often is it correct to pitch a random card for this effect?

In conclusion: i have no idea...

Does any of the above sound reasonable, or helpful?? It's just a crazy thought that popped into my head...
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i think this is a more useful and interesting comparison because everyone knows Whispers > Mystic Spec and Augur is a real card and Omenspeaker isn't. Both these cards were very good in limited, but Visionary sees occasional constructed play outside its tribal context ... everyone agrees Owl should be better, but then

to respond to Wadds' point, a lot of magic theory is about conversions of resources, but a lot of bad and useless theory (like the philosophy of fire, hehehehehe) tries way too hard with this. i think the more interesting place to go (which this thread is moving in the direction of) is recognizing there are a dozen or so variables of varying importance in making this kind of evaluation and/or judgment, and trying to tease out the other variables at work here. i guess flying + scry 3 < draw though?
 
Eric Chan

Eric Chan

Hyalopterous Lemure
Staff member
Yeah, it's weird. Augury Owl was passable in M11 limited, but was never a serious consideration for any other format. Meanwhile, Elvish Visionary is obviously an Elves! card, but I was also happy to have him in my Nest Invader/Kozilek's Predator/Eldrazi Monument Standard deck, too, because he helped smooth out land draws and dig for finishers. I included him in my cube for a while in the hopes that a similar deck would come together, and while it never did, people still cast him on occasion.
 
CML

CML

Contributor
anyone running visionary? it's a sweet thing to pod into and out of. i am going to try it
 
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