Sets [ORI] Magic Origins Spoilers
- Thread starter anotak
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Onderzeeboot
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I made a population sample based on the calculated percentages. Excel tells me the Standard Deviation is 1.04 in the Magmatic Insight case, and 0.84 in the normal case. Nothing too unexpected I guess? You draw two more cards after all, so I'ld expect the stdev to be higher. Of course this does mean that, though the averages are very close, you are slightly more likely to end up with a land more or less when casting Magmatic Insight. That's exactly the reason why I would not Insight away my second land on the play with a 2-lander.
Edit: updated the pic in my previous post to include standard deviation.
Edit: updated the pic in my previous post to include standard deviation.
Dom Harvey
Contributor
I don't recall this much enthusiasm for Tormenting Voice...
Onderzeeboot
Ecstatic Orb
Tormenting Voice is two mana and poses a less interesting question because you can either discard a land or a nonland, depending on what you are looking for. People were discussing whether Magmatic Insight was playable, which hinges on whether you can use it when you're not mana flooded. Turns out the answer is relatively trivial to calculate and interesting. Don't be too afraid to cycle your lands away!
Chris Taylor
Contributor
I love having stat people on these boards. Here I was going to wing the Ev calculation anecdotally, but hey now I have like, math and stuff!
Who else would suffer through endless excel spreadsheets for the sake of a hobby?
Okay, wait, nevermind.
Onderzeeboot
Ecstatic Orb
Don't let the facade fool you. I'm good with odds, Excel, and Google, but an average to bad statistician otherwise (I couldn't explain what a Poisson distribution does, for example, unless I googled it of course
) I do love these kinds of calculations though, which makes it a lot easier to put in some effort to figure things out!
I am a legitimate statistician but I can't be arsed to make these probability calculations, even though it would take so, so little time. I like giving vague estimations and having Zeeboot confirm them.
Chris Taylor
Contributor
Dangit guys stop ruining the magic!
I'm decent with excel too, just bad with probabilites
I'm decent with excel too, just bad with probabilites
Onderzeeboot
Ecstatic Orb
I love statistics, but I'm glad it's not my job
Maybe this isn't the proper place to ask, but I've been struggling:
To preorder, or not to preorder?
This is my first new set while managing a cube experience, but we've already decided to pass on boxes this time and just look at singles. But when to buy? Now, this weekend, 2 weeks? Quite a few cards seem obvious for some value loss right out the gate, but others are worrisome; how much could their standard demand drive them?
So: who's preordering, who's waiting, who's only preordered selectively, and what do you think is a slam-dunk preorder now, if anything? I'm trying to find a Lili under 20, but that aside, I'm not sure anything else really needs preordering. I'm not sure, though.
(Maybe this needs its own thread.)
To preorder, or not to preorder?
This is my first new set while managing a cube experience, but we've already decided to pass on boxes this time and just look at singles. But when to buy? Now, this weekend, 2 weeks? Quite a few cards seem obvious for some value loss right out the gate, but others are worrisome; how much could their standard demand drive them?
So: who's preordering, who's waiting, who's only preordered selectively, and what do you think is a slam-dunk preorder now, if anything? I'm trying to find a Lili under 20, but that aside, I'm not sure anything else really needs preordering. I'm not sure, though.
(Maybe this needs its own thread.)
Onderzeeboot
Ecstatic Orb
I just preorder, knowing that I will lose money on a lot of cards, and save a lot of money on a few cards I mostly ignore the really expensive cards. For example, I wouldn't buy a Liliana right now, because she seems way too expensive.
I mostly ignore the really expensive cards. For example, I wouldn't buy a Liliana right now, because she seems way too expensive.
Just proxy. Magic is not worth this much money. Plus, it's kinda piracy, and you can say ARRRR as you do it.
I like picking up foils for Cube, specifically cards that I feel will be in my Cube for a while and/or are likely to jump in value in the near future. So far I've ebayed for a promo Lily (basically the only card I REALLY wanted a foil of), and promo versions of Evolutionary Leap and Harbinger of the Tides b/c I could get them each like 5 dollars cheaper than they're worth and I feel both of them have a lot of appeal in other formats (Leap for EDH, Tides for Modern Merfolk). I don't think there's much else I'm looking to pick up promos of in the near future, maybe Abbot of Keral Keep if I can find it under 15. I've lost some money on some promos I've hunted for, but many of them have also turned out pretty well (KTK Dig Through Time, FRF Tasigur, etc.). It's pretty stable from what I've seen, most foils retain value pretty well and I can dump/trade them away later if I no longer need them for about the same amount. I normally do this only for rares/mythics though, since it's easier to find random foils of certain commons/uncommons in random binders or for super cheap off Amazon.
If you don't care for foils, I'd just wait a bit for the pricier cards to drop and try to actively trade into what you would want in the meantime. From what I've seen from a year of managing my Cube, a lot of cards tend to drop 2 weeks after release unless they see significant Standard play. If you see any cards that look like they'd have a home in Standard, then I'd try and pick them up early before the spike (if they're at a reasonable price). Or just pay attention to any big SCG Open or whatever that comes up, see which cards are seeing play, then quickly buy them before spiking. It usually takes a day or two after a good SCG showing for stuff to spike. I remember watching PT M15, saw Perilous Vault had a good showing, bought like 8 of them at $3 and traded them in for $7 a piece two days later at LGS. Stuff spikes REALLY quick after a big event.
Look at TCGPlayer for certain pricier cards, usually you can find certain vendors selling for pretty cheap.
If you don't care for foils, I'd just wait a bit for the pricier cards to drop and try to actively trade into what you would want in the meantime. From what I've seen from a year of managing my Cube, a lot of cards tend to drop 2 weeks after release unless they see significant Standard play. If you see any cards that look like they'd have a home in Standard, then I'd try and pick them up early before the spike (if they're at a reasonable price). Or just pay attention to any big SCG Open or whatever that comes up, see which cards are seeing play, then quickly buy them before spiking. It usually takes a day or two after a good SCG showing for stuff to spike. I remember watching PT M15, saw Perilous Vault had a good showing, bought like 8 of them at $3 and traded them in for $7 a piece two days later at LGS. Stuff spikes REALLY quick after a big event.
Look at TCGPlayer for certain pricier cards, usually you can find certain vendors selling for pretty cheap.
I'm like Onder - pretty much every set, I preorder selectively, mostly cards under $5. I'm holding off and hoping that the likes of Woodland Bellower and Kytheon go down after a little while, but Molten Vortex probably isn't getting any cheaper. There are a lot of cards I wish I'd preordered - for example, there was a point at which both Dragonlord Atarka and Dragonlord Ojutai could be had for about a fiver each! Going further back, Craterhoof Behemoth started at a paltry $2 before someone (Josh Utter-Leyton?) broke it in a high-level event. For those reasons, I'll almost always buy the cheap stuff immediately nowadays, because having its value go down a buck or two while getting to cube it right away isn't nearly as bad as passing initially and then seeing the price shoot up, which means a wait of a few months - or years - for it to come back down.
Onderzeeboot
Ecstatic Orb
I paid waaaaay too much for Sword of the Animist though, because I was impatient and wanted to get the preorders over with! That thing dropped like a brick!
Onderzeeboot
Ecstatic Orb
It dropped from €6 to €3 over here.
Is it good?
Onderzeeboot
Ecstatic Orb
Mana ramping on each attack and improving your future draws sounds pretty ridiculous! I like how it has a very cheap equip cost as well.
I'm thinking it's bad because Leonin Scimitar is bad, and the Rampant Growth effect isn't enough to make up for the more expensive equip cost, because the lack of evasion means you might still be binning your equipped creature after every combat step. I've love to be wrong, though!
edit: after typing this post i actually turned to google and other forums for opinions on this card... boy was that a mistake
edit: after typing this post i actually turned to google and other forums for opinions on this card... boy was that a mistake
Wow I'm surprised it was that high on preorder. I don't think it's going to drop much further, card is pretty nutty. It's an insta-add in many EDH decks, and that Rampant Growth per turn (on swing, not even combat damage!) is so good. This is the kind of equipment I love seeing. I played against it in 2HG the other day and it was so good on-curve. T1 some dude, T2 sword, T3 equip and swing was soooo good. This card is REALLY good.
Onderzeeboot
Ecstatic Orb
Basically I want to go Jhessian Thief into this. Live the dream!
I seem to remember this being spoiled with an equip cost of
, maybe that's why it started so high?
I'm under the impression it is a seeded card to work well with the next expansion aka Battle of Zendikar aka landfall. Could be wrong though...
