Sets [ORI] Magic Origins Spoilers

[Chris Taylor]

I really hope magmatic insight is good. Faithless looting was only ever good for setting up graveyard shenenigans, not for smoothing your draw.
Tormenting Voice was probably the card I want, but it costing 1 is a big deal. I wonder if it only countering mana flood instead of screw is worth the difference in mana.

 

[safra]

I really hope magmatic insight is good. Faithless looting was only ever good for setting up graveyard shenenigans, not for smoothing your draw.
Tormenting Voice was probably the card I want, but it costing 1 is a big deal. I wonder if it only countering mana flood instead of screw is worth the difference in mana.

i've briefly tested all three in a couple of quick games (testing with a three-way split card) and I got more excited about turn one Insight than turn one Looting if I didn't care about the graveyard. I'd run it.

Isn't magmatic insight dead in every hand except a flooding one?

yeah, but I'd way rather be mana screwed than flooded; I have cards and just can't play them. Adding a card that disproportionately prevents the thing I actually want less seems okay but I'm also running other red draw and discard.

 

[Rasmus Källqvist]

Isn't magmatic insight dead in every hand except a flooding one?

 

[Chris Taylor]

I really hope magmatic insight is good. Faithless looting was only ever good for setting up graveyard shenenigans, not for smoothing your draw.
Tormenting Voice was probably the card I want, but it costing 1 is a big deal. I wonder if it only countering mana flood instead of screw is worth the difference in mana.

 

[Jason Waddell]

Should be noted that discarding a land is pretty mana-development neutral. You draw two cards, and you expect about 0.8 of them to be a land on average. You can even draw two lands off of it! You could probably insight on Turn 1 with a 2-land hand and have it not be completely unjustifiable.

 

[shamizy]

Priest of the Blood Rite is so cool. My friend and I did a 2HG last night, went 3-1, and I had a super sweet RB Sacrifice deck. 4 Nantuko Husk, 3 Act of Treason, 2 Fleshbag Marauder, Macabre Waltz, etc. It was so gross. Priest came down, made his 5/5 demon buddy, and certain opponents just didn't want to attack b/c they wanted us to take the two damage off the priest on upkeep. I mean yeah, it's kind of like a clock I guess, but people really overrated how much that 2 damage mattered. It could be really bad if they just deal with the demon and I'm stuck with Priest, but at least it's keeping them for attacking with most beaters on the floor. Super sweet card, my promo is gonna look good in the Cube.

 

[ahadabans]

I've been saying this from day one about the priest. It's busted. That 2/2 dude pinging you for 2 each turn is a guy you can abuse. He chumps, he can attack and if not blocked you can make the 2 life a turn a shared experience. You can blink him, Alesha him, Lark him, Vat him, Pod him... the list goes on and on. And each time you reset him, he makes a 5/5 flying demon with zero drawbacks.

This card is so good I may not be able to run it my cube without overpowering sac/blink themes. It's so much better than Blade Splicer (who is already pretty good), it's not even funny.

 

[James Stevenson]

And, he doesn't make bounce guys worse, since bouncing the token is good.

 

[safra]

I've been saying this from day one about the priest. It's busted. That 2/2 dude pinging you for 2 each turn is a guy you can abuse. He chumps, he can attack and if not blocked you can make the 2 life a turn a shared experience. You can blink him, Alesha him, Lark him, Vat him, Pod him... the list goes on and on. And each time you reset him, he makes a 5/5 flying demon with zero drawbacks.

This card is so good I may not be able to run it my cube without overpowering sac/blink themes. It's so much better than Blade Splicer (who is already pretty good), it's not even funny.

yeah i excluded it on power level immediately which is an interesting sign for a card that nobody even seems to want yet

 

[shamizy]

I could see cutting him if you have many ways of cheating him out early. Free 5/5 flyers seems pretty decent. I'm pretty fine with that happening every once in a while if someone crafts a sweet reanimator deck. I just think that it'll be cast on curve for 5, 4 with ramp, most of the time in my list. I don't see it any more oppressive than other good 5 drops in my Cube. Also, unless they have a sac outlet right then and there, it's not too great if you're behind and backpedaling. This won't stabilize your board too much. I think it's alright as is. Unless you're playing some value reanimator build, I'd just treat the demon as the real 5 drop and deal with it. Even then, at 5 mana in a fair match, most decks will have some way of dealing with a 5 drop.

It's an interesting card at the very least, can't wait to test it out.

 

[MCMcEmcee]

Context is everything. I mean if you a) cut efficient removal, b) don't support aggro, and c) try to jam a bunch of value-based themes into your cube, then a generic (if good) midrange 5 drop value fatty is probably going to look closer to overpowered. That doesn't mean the sky is falling and that all cubes will be consumed by our new demonic overlords.

I mean I recently drafted a Jund zombie bombardment deck that made 1-mana 5/5 flying demons every turn starting on t3. A good way to keep your opponent from getting too much value from their 5 drop is to just kill them.

(Also the sky isn't falling, the ground is rising. Before it's too late, can I interest you in a Demonic Pact?)

 

[safra]

(Also the sky isn't falling, the ground is rising. Before it's too late, can I interest you in a Demonic Pact?)

Now there's a card I'm excited about.

 

[MCMcEmcee]

ALSO after having just said context is everything, I think Magmatic Insight is pretty bad. Cheap card draw is great for fixing mana screw and flood; this card is really bad if you are mana screwed (can't cast it at all if you draw it, high risk for low reward if you open with it) and it isn't exactly insane when you are flooded (and that's assuming you even kept a land for this).

Mana screw is "better" than flood in the heads-up in that being mana screwed has a lower bar for what it needs to draw before it can start doing things for a few turns, whereas the flooded guy will probably only get to do something once per turn at best once he draws out of it... but neither is particularly desirable, and it's typically easier to solve the problem of having too much mana than it is to solve not having enough.

 

[FlowerSunRain]

Here is my list of interesting cube cards from this set:

Stuff that gets by on power level

Kytheon, Hero of Akros
Jace, Vyrn's Prodigy
Liliana, Heretical Healer
Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh
Nissa, Vastwood Seer
Archangel of Tithes
Titan of Erebus
Avaricous Dragon
Woodland Bellower
Demonic Pact
Abbot of Keral Keep
Pia and Kiran Nalaar
Exquisite Firecraft
Despoiler of Souls
Chandra's Ignition
Evolutionary Leap
Harbinger of Tides
Graveblade Maurader
Honored Hierarch
Relic Seeker
Languish
Molten Vortex
Managorger Hydra
Priest of the Blood Rite
Scab-clan Berserker
Nissa's Revelation
Acolyte of the Inferno
Vyrn Wingmare
Consol's Lieutenant
Jhessian Thief
Goblin Glory Chaser
Swift Reckoning
Whirler Rogue
Sword of the Animist
Starfield of Nyx
The Great Aurora
Flameshadow Conjuring
Herald of the Pantheon
Thopter Spy Network
Dwynen's Elite
Blessed Spirits
Patron of the Valiant
Thopter Engineer
Valeron Wardens
Helm of the Gods
Hangarback Walker
Citadel Castellan
Day's Undoing
Disciple of the Ring
Hixus, Prison Warden
Kothoped, Soul Hoarder
Displacement Wave
Gilt-Leaf Winnower
Embermax Hellion
Kytheon's Irregulars
Mizzium Meddler
Tragic Arrogance
Elemental Bond
Gather the Pack
Ravaging Blaze
Sentinel of the Eternal Watch
Magmatic Insight
Artificers Epiphany
Deadbridge Shaman
Nissa's Pilgrimage
Reave Soul
Topan Freeblade
bounding Krasis
Blazing Hellhound
Pyromancer's Googles
War Horn
Conclave Naturalists
Shambling Ghoul
Shadows of the Past

Even after making this huge list, which doesn't even include three cards that I am interested but likely not anyone else, I'm pretty sure I'm still missing some! Does Sigil of Valor have play? I doubt it, but maybe! Is Mage Ring Bully or Thornwood Archer good enough to fill a slot? Probably someone has a home for them! C/U powermaxers probably care about some of these cards that don't notice because I literally don't look at rarities.

I mean, there is still some completely total garbage like Consecrated by Blood and justifiably nerfed Seacoast Drake, but it really seems like there was more effort then usual to making sure that almost every card filled some role within the grand scheme of Magic's giant catalog of cards.

And this set has a ton of reprints! Crazy!

 

[MCMcEmcee]

I like alchemist's vial. Won't put it in my cube but a copy is going into the battle box.

 

[ahadabans]

Magmatic Insight seems good to me. I'll be trying it out. Any deck I built with it would likely run one extra land (or at least if I was not sure 16 vs 17 I would go 17 with this card).

But even if I have a two land hand, unless that second land was non-basic, I would probably toss it turn 1 to draw two cards. Odds are good you'll get a land back, and maybe two. And on your next turn, you draw another card, so really you see three cards before your second land drop. Might be a bit risky, but it seems OK to me. It's great with 3 lands in your hand and downright stellar with 4. I wouldn't keep a six land hand typically, but maybe if this were the one spell, I would seriously think about it.

Faithless looting is a great card, GY synergy or no. It is so easy in cube to recoup CA. It's much more valuable to have options early in the game especially and to make sure you don't miss drops or give up too much tempo by not playing anything. I'm all for more card quality cards in cube.

 

[CML]

here i must dissent. faithless is pretty unplayable without graveyard stuff. card disadvantage is a kick in the nuts. magmatic looks great, though.

 

[quanta]

For the sake of debate, are there any actual red 3-drop creatures people are omitting due to being too powerful?

Blue 3 drop creatures omitted:


Red 3-drop spells omitted
(not sure how much wheel counts)

My guess is that most RL 3-drop red sections look somewhat similar to their power-max equivalents, unless you're running something like that 1/1 who leaves a 5/5 artifact behind.

Huh, judging by the average 360, 450, and 720 on cubetutor, you're right. Even if you look towards the 2 and 4 drop positions as well, there aren't any red creatures that are gamebreaking. They're mostly just dumb beaters that don't even have any form of evasion. And if acolyte gets a hit in and goes to 4 power it's doing pretty well power wise compared to what people are running.

 

[Grillo_Parlante]

Context is everything. I mean if you a) cut efficient removal, b) don't support aggro, and c) try to jam a bunch of value-based themes into your cube, then a generic (if good) midrange 5 drop value fatty is probably going to look closer to overpowered. That doesn't mean the sky is falling and that all cubes will be consumed by our new demonic overlords.

I mean I recently drafted a Jund zombie bombardment deck that made 1-mana 5/5 flying demons every turn starting on t3. A good way to keep your opponent from getting too much value from their 5 drop is to just kill them.

Isn't that kind of an argument against it though? Its a card so powerful it condenses the entire cube?

 

[Jason Waddell]

I can't see a 5-drop that just dumps power and toughness onto the board as being too risky to run at most power levels. I'd be more afraid of many other cube 5-drops hitting the other side of the table.

 

[Onderzeeboot]

RE: Magmatic Insight

I was wondering if I could statistically answer the question whether you should pitch your second land to Magmatic Insight if you're on the play and you got only two lands in your opener. I'm supposing 17 lands in a 40 card deck here. I'll represent the hand as P2/7 (on the play, 2 lands in your opening 7), D3/7 (on the draw, 3 lands in your opening 7), etc. After that I list the chance to draw a certain number of lands in a certain number of draws, e.g. P(0 in 3) = the chance to draw 0 lands in your next 3 cards, which is how many cards you will see before you can make your second land drop if you Magmatic Insight away your second land on turn 1 and are on the play.

P2/7: P(0 in 3) = 15,0%
P2/7: P(1 in 3) = 42,1%
P2/7: P(2 in 3) = 34,6%
P2/7: P(3 in 3) = 8,3%

So if you Magmatic Insight on the play on t1 with only 2 lands in hand, your expected number of lands on t2 = 2,36 (i.e. 1 (the land you played) + 42,1% * 1 (the odds of drawing 1 land) + 34,6 * 2 + 8,3 * 3). When not casting Magmatic Insight, your expected number of lands on t2 would be 2,45 (1.e. 2 (because you kept the land) + 15/33 * 1 (the chance to draw a land on your one draw). So, it seems to be slightly disadvantageous to cast it on the play if you're only holding 2 lands, but on average you should definitely expect to be able to make that second land drop on turn 2. Of course, in 15% of the games you won't, so the question remains: are you willing to take that gamble?

Calculating these odds is quite fun, I'll do some more later if I have the time

 

[Onderzeeboot]

More numbers!



So, E(land) t4 is the number of lands you expect to have drawn by turn 4, provided you're on the play, play 17 lands, and no other card draws. Add to that the number of lands in your opener, and you know how many lands you have. The 1,27 number for Magmatic Insight includes the land you have to discard as part of the cost. You're really only a fraction behind the normal expected progression, less than 0.1 land! Say you start with 3 lands, then on average you will have 4.27 lands on t4 if you cast Magmatic Insight before t4, or 4.36 if you don't. In short, it's entirely defensible to use Magmatic Insight even at low starting land counts in your hand. I would probably not cast it when I start with only two lands, there is a 15% chance you won't have a second land drop on t2, and that's too big a risk imho, but if I start with 3 I would definitely cycle a land away. The odds off that backfiring are a lot lower than the odds that it draws you into a key card or past a land glut. Good card is good!

 

[Jason Waddell]

More numbers!

View attachment 402

So, E(land) t4 is the number of lands you expect to have drawn by turn 4, provided you're on the play, play 17 lands, and no other card draws. Add to that the number of lands in your opener, and you know how many lands you have. The 1,27 number for Magmatic Insight includes the land you have to discard as part of the cost. You're really only a fraction behind the normal expected progression, less than 0.1 land! Say you start with 3 lands, then on average you will have 4.27 lands on t4 if you cast Magmatic Insight before t4, or 4.36 if you don't. In short, it's entirely defensible to use Magmatic Insight even at low starting land counts in your hand. I would probably not cast it when I start with only two lands, there is a 15% chance you won't have a second land drop on t2, and that's too big a risk imho, but if I start with 3 I would definitely cycle a land away. The odds off that backfiring are a lot lower than the odds that it draws you into a key card or past a land glut. Good card is good!

What is your expected value calculation?

> 0 * 0.036 + 1 * 0.193 + 2 * 0.361 + 3 * 0.293 + 4 * 0.104 + 5 * 0.013
[1] 2.275

Oh, I used rounded numbers, but you are subtracting 1 from the expected value for the land you discarded, right?

Worth noting: in either case draws 1, 2 and 3 are the same, so it's only draws 4 and 5 that differ between the two scenarios.

 

[Onderzeeboot]

What is your expected value calculation?

> 0 * 0.036 + 1 * 0.193 + 2 * 0.361 + 3 * 0.293 + 4 * 0.104 + 5 * 0.013
[1] 2.275

Oh, I used rounded numbers, but you are subtracting 1 from the expected value for the land you discarded, right?

Worth noting: in either case draws 1, 2 and 3 are the same, so it's only draws 4 and 5 that differ between the two scenarios.

Correct and indeed

The calculations nicely back up your proposition that it might even be correct to use Magmatic Insight even with a 2-lander. Those extra 2 draws will, on average, nearly make up for the discarded land, which basically makes this a very good digging spell.

 

[Jason Waddell]

What is the increase in Standard Deviation of land count in that scenario?