I have a thought but not sure how half-baked it is... some idea that signaling is more relevant to high-power cards (relative to your environment) than low-power cards. If these cards are 10th-15th picks, by the time I'm picking them I've already seen like 80+ other cards.
Generally agree...
I mostly agree with Brad, but to ask a probing question: what is the purpose of your classification. In the draft, the card is just the card, so what design problems are being addressed by your classification system? (no wrong answers)
I don't know, when my wife started playing even her starter deck had a Planeswalker in it. I doubt the card type is very rare in this day and age, they've even printed Planeswalkers at uncommon.
Specifically, it's a weighted expected value problem.:
E(pack) = p(pack with no ring) * E(pack with no ring) + p(pack with ring) * E(pack with ring)
When the ring is found, the two probability values go to 1 and 0 respectively. The other values (e.g. expected value of pack with no ring) I...
Vel you were mixing up probability with expected value. The post I made was an illustration of why the two are not at all the same. I couldn't tell you the actual percent because I don't know how many packs they'll print, the value of a pack without the ring, the value of the ring itself, or how...
Thought experiment: suppose 100% of the set value is in a single card (fairly analogous to an actual lottery). There may be a 0.00000whatever% chance of opening, but once it's opened, the value of all unopened packs drop 100%.