Card/Deck Single Card Spotlight

Improving your future draws a lot, purportedly.

I assume I cast each card on the turn corresponding to its casting cost and that the game ends during my tenth turn. For simplicity, I assume a four-mana starting hand. How many additional spells will I draw before the end of the game, on average, comparing games where I cast my deck thinning spell against games where I don't?
11152012nelsontable8.jpg
 
It feels powerful but it's so risky and was underwhelming every cast when I ran it. You can't run it alongside ramp or land-fetching spells, you can't play it too early / it's worse than just drawing some cards late enough / you can neuter your splash. Tutors, looters, and just plain old card draw should be enough smoothing that you don't feel the need for something like mana severance. It's such a drastic measure to go "my resources will never pass this point" (barring artifacts/dorks) in magic.
 

Eric Chan

Hyalopterous Lemure
Staff member
Yeah, I find my decks that want to draw a lot of cards also don't mind drawing more lands, even in the late game. These decks want to operate with lots and lots of mana.

Kind of the same reason why Countryside Crusher never caught on. Even aggro decks want a couple lands once in a while!
 

Chris Taylor

Contributor
Improving your future draws a lot, purportedly.


11152012nelsontable8.jpg

I will admit those are way better returns than I thought it'd give you, but T2 mana severance yoink my library is pretty optimistic. As mentioned above, splash colors, utility lands and not having enough lands to top your curve out in your opener all complicate that use case.

Out of curiosity, when is "the end of the game" on average in this chart? Are we talking control end of game or aggro end of game here?

Also, is all the math we're doing right now likely to be the conclusion of people who see this card in a cube pack? o.O
 
Yeah, I downloaded his "toolkit" / spreadsheet for odds-crunching. I'm curious what a Mana Severance with 4 to 7 lands already in play would look like. Turn 2 seems a little extreme.
 
Treasure Cruise is cruise control for everything... which is part of why I'll probably never put it in a cube except for the proxy cube I'm planning for a local juvenile detention center.

Edit: what about a Mana Severance when you have 2 or 3 lands in play and 1 to 3 lands in hand? What if you remove many, but not all, of your lands? These are numbers I want to crunch as well now, but I'm curious about folks' gut instincts on the matter.
 

James Stevenson

Steamflogger Boss
Staff member
Treasure Cruise is cruise control for everything... which is part of why I'll probably never put it in a cube except for the proxy cube I'm planning for a local juvenile detention center.

Is this actually happening? Think I can come get arrested in your neighborhood?
 
Sure, all you have to do is be brown and "steal" an old cell phone from a dumpster, or be white and break your neighbor's dog's legs with a bat! (The latter kid has a pretty troubled home, he's saner and safer inside tbh. The first kid's just damn unlucky on the skin color lottery.)
 
I will admit those are way better returns than I thought it'd give you, but T2 mana severance yoink my library is pretty optimistic. As mentioned above, splash colors, utility lands and not having enough lands to top your curve out in your opener all complicate that use case.

Out of curiosity, when is "the end of the game" on average in this chart? Are we talking control end of game or aggro end of game here?

Also, is all the math we're doing right now likely to be the conclusion of people who see this card in a cube pack? o_O
As stated in the part I quoted (and you snipped!) end of game is turn 10. It's probs based on the RTR draft stats from his previous articles. He seems to lean towards thinking as a control player - his idea of a "competitive start" for the purpose of deciding whether to mulligan is managing to find 4 lands and 4 spells by turn 4. Maybe an aggro deck really only needs to find 3 lands by t4 and is perfectly happy to not see its 4th land until turns 5 or 6.

What would you folks call a competitive start?
 
What would you folks call a competitive start?


For me, I'd say it's really just about having something to do on each of my turns. I can miss a land drop as long as I can still cast something and/or interact with the board in a meaningful way. Once I am passing turns because I have nothing to play (due to the wrong cards in my hand or mana problems), I've officially transitioned into being non-competitive at that point and the game usually only remains competitive if my opponent is having similar problems or is not a good player and has made enough play mistakes to where I have a big lead or can make up the difference later.

Against my spike friend, the moment you can't do anything productive is usually the turn the game gets away from you even if it drags on for another few rounds while he pounds you into submission. lol.
 

Onderzeeboot

Ecstatic Orb
What would you folks call a competitive start?

Mountain, Goblin Lackey > Mountain, Goblin Guide, Goblin Guide, Goblin Warchief (off Lackey) > Mountain, Goblin Piledriver, Goblin Piledriver, Goblin Piledriver :p

@silasw: Empyrial Plate is pretty decent. Oft overlooked, but jut as dangerous as Empyrial Armor.
 

Are you kidding? Most of us have been loving the reclaimation for ages!

Sceptical re the battle rage. Torrent elemental was insane for me at the pre rel, but don't think cube is the the right format for it. Even if proved wrong my opponents all found it miserable so unlikely to play.
 
If bolster could target any creature, it might be worth a second look. But as written, it sucks IMO.

This guy is pretty sweet on an empty board, but in that color combination, I pretty much guarantee you he has a Llanowar Elf next to him ready to completely waste that bolster ability.
 

James Stevenson

Steamflogger Boss
Staff member
If bolster could target any creature, it might be worth a second look. But as written, it sucks IMO.

This guy is pretty sweet on an empty board, but in that color combination, I pretty much guarantee you he has a Llanowar Elf next to him ready to completely waste that bolster ability.

I dunno, I think it's still great value. Turn my Elf into a relevant creature? Yes please!
 
Is a vanilla 3/3 all that relevant on turn 5 though? It's better than nothing clearly. But you are losing that elf as a mana source if you choose to attack with him. So it's not like you cast Call of the Herd. You just made your elf an elephant.

I don't know. With so few gold slots, there's so many other cards I'd rather cube.
 

Onderzeeboot

Ecstatic Orb
I don't know. With so few gold slots, there's so many other cards I'd rather cube.
Aha, but I have a lot of gold slots at my disposal! I suspect you're right that it's not in the top six or so Selesnya cards, which makes it not the best choice for normal cubes. However, I was wondering since Cheon (I think) called it one of the top three rares in Fates Reforged. Apparently it has a lot of impact.
 
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